The Federal Reserve released their latest projections for the US economy on September 21 indicating sluggish expected GDP growth (0.2% in 2022 and 1.2% in 2023), slightly increasing unemployment (rising from 3.7% now to 4.4% in 2023 and 2024), and annualized inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target until 2024. Jerome Powell, the chairperson of
The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, is currently down for its 8th week in a row, falling close to 20% year-to-date. The main reason for the decline is that investors are nervous about whether the economy is heading into a recession. Specifically, they are worried that the Federal Reserve, in its fight
The market was undervalued for a New York minute in March 2020. This brief period in March ultimately proved a great buying opportunity (we began scooping up stocks two days after the March low), and the sharp stock market recovery amid COVID lockdowns and negative earnings growth yet again created a broadly overvalued environment for
Global stock markets dropped sharply on Thursday, September 3, with mega-cap technology stocks accelerating their slide from the previous day. Various speakers from the Federal Reserve likely exacerbated nervousness among investors, with the presidents of the Chicago and Atlanta Federal Reserve branches publicly expressing concerns about asset bubbles and recent stock market performance. While the
The last three months have been so “unprecedented” that Google Trends indicates that searches for the term “unprecedented” are up 1000% versus the historical average. That’s, well, unprecedented. During these unusual times, I have found charts and infographics helpful to put things into perspective. Below, you can find a couple of our in-house charts along
Our firm’s principal often quips that investments are the only thing that people like to buy when they’re more expensive and don’t like to buy when they’re cheap. Over the last several weeks, we have watched different types of assets decline in value, moving from relatively expensive to relatively cheap. As some asset classes continue
My investment mentor, a late legend among hedge fund managers, once explained to me the stages of a market decline. Public concern is first, which turns to worry, which then becomes fear, then becomes panic, and finally capitulation. One can get an idea of the current stage of public sentiment by the generally frantic nature of investors
The newsreel over the last week has been like a movie, with several plotlines running concurrently: coronavirus, OPEC, the 2020 election, and continued trade tensions. Over the past several weeks, these separate plotlines, with their respective twists and turns, have evoked pessimism and concern among the public, which has led to selloffs in global stock
Over the last two months, global sentiment has transitioned from complacency to concern, and then to fear regarding the impact of the Novel Coronavirus (nCoV) on global economies and our daily lives. Purportedly originating from non-sanitary meat markets near Wuhan, China, nCoV has spread across Australasia, the Middle East, Europe, and sporadically across the
Blindfold yourself, grab a dart, and throw it at the Wall Street Journal. Whatever stock, bond, commodity, or fund you hit probably increased in 2020. Coming off a nearly 20% stock market drawdown at the end of 2018, 2019 was a year to make money. Source: Visual Capitalist – All indexes assume dividends reinvested