Fourth Quarter Economic Commentary

Fourth Quarter Economic Commentary: Lowering Expectations for 2023

The Federal Reserve released their latest projections for the US economy on September 21 indicating sluggish expected GDP growth (0.2% in 2022 and 1.2% in 2023), slightly increasing unemployment (rising from 3.7% now to 4.4% in 2023 and 2024), and annualized inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target until 2024.  Jerome Powell, the chairperson of

Thoughts On Thursday’s Stock Selloff

Global stock markets dropped sharply on Thursday, September 3, with mega-cap technology stocks accelerating their slide from the previous day. Various speakers from the Federal Reserve likely exacerbated nervousness among investors, with the presidents of the Chicago and Atlanta Federal Reserve branches publicly expressing concerns about asset bubbles and recent stock market performance. While the

“Unprecedented” Charts to Put the Economy in Context

The last three months have been so “unprecedented” that Google Trends indicates that searches for the term “unprecedented” are up 1000% versus the historical average.  That’s, well, unprecedented.  During these unusual times, I have found charts and infographics helpful to put things into perspective.  Below, you can find a couple of our in-house charts along

Just as Risky Assets Start Becoming Attractive, Nobody Wants Them

Our firm’s principal often quips that investments are the only thing that people like to buy when they’re more expensive and don’t like to buy when they’re cheap. Over the last several weeks, we have watched different types of assets decline in value, moving from relatively expensive to relatively cheap. As some asset classes continue

Bad Things Happen At Bad Times. . .

My investment mentor, a late legend among hedge fund managers, once explained to me the stages of a market decline. Public concern is first, which turns to worry, which then becomes fear, then becomes panic, and finally capitulation. One can get an idea of the current stage of public sentiment by the generally frantic nature of investors

Stories Within Stories – Examining Recent Market Volatility

The newsreel over the last week has been like a movie, with several plotlines running concurrently: coronavirus, OPEC, the 2020 election, and continued trade tensions. Over the past several weeks, these separate plotlines, with their respective twists and turns, have evoked pessimism and concern among the public, which has led to selloffs in global stock

A Plague on Your Investment Portfolio? How We’re Monitoring the Novel Coronavirus and Markets

Over the last two months, global sentiment has transitioned from complacency to concern, and then to fear regarding the impact of the Novel Coronavirus (nCoV) on global economies and our daily lives.   Purportedly originating from non-sanitary meat markets near Wuhan, China, nCoV has spread across Australasia, the Middle East, Europe, and sporadically across the

2019 – The Year When Everything Went Up… What’s Ahead?

Blindfold yourself, grab a dart, and throw it at the Wall Street Journal. Whatever stock, bond, commodity, or fund you hit probably increased in 2020. Coming off a nearly 20% stock market drawdown at the end of 2018, 2019 was a year to make money. Source: Visual Capitalist – All indexes assume dividends reinvested